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Newsletter n. 13

Nomisma presents first 2017 Report on real estate market: growth in the residential sector

Residential sales in 2016 confirm improvements in the sector, but falls in prices are still being recorded. Corporate investments are faring better, setting a new record. This is the picture that emerged from the presentation in Milan of the first quarterly 2017 report on the Real Estate Market (now in its thirtieth year) by Nomisma, one of Italy’s leading research and economic analysis firms.

Residential sales reached 528,865 in 2016, an 18.94% increase compared to 444,636 closed in 2015. For 2017, Nomisma expects further growth: a total of 565,391 transactions is estimated for 2017, while for 2018 this could reach 584,523, arriving at 616,513 in 2019.

With reference to prices, the slowdown continues. The 13 large cities tracked (Bari, Bologna, Cagliari, Catania, Florence, Genoa, Milan, Naples, Padua, Palermo, Rome, Turin and Venice) have seen an average fall of 1.5% for second hand residential stock. In the 13 intermediate cities (Ancona, Bergamo, Brescia, Livorno, Messina, Modena, Novara, Parma, Perugia, Salerno, Taranto, Trieste and Verona) a 2% reduction was seen for second hand premises. As far as regards average future price forecasts, Nomisma estimates a 0.9% fall in 2017. Variations are expected to remain in negative territory with -0.2% for 2018, becoming positive again in 2019 with an increase of 0.5% expected.

Finally, moving on to consider corporate real estate investments volumes, 2016 closed with €9.1 billion, up 13.7% on 2015 which ended at €8 billion. The weighting of real estate investments in Italy on total investments in Europe was 3.6% in 2016 (2.9% in 2015, 2.4% in 2014). According to Nomisma investments have been driven to record levels thanks both to the interest shown in Italy by foreign players and to a renewed vitality from domestic investors, whose contribution in terms of market movement has reached approximately 40%.

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